Analysts doubt North Korea’s ICBM re-entry capability

However, whether North Korea can arm the missile with a nuclear warhead and protect it throughout the flight are different questions entirely.

After analyzing video from a rooftop camera operated by Japan’s NHK television on the northern island of Hokkaido, U.S. missile expert Michael Elleman concluded that Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle “disintegrated” before it landed at sea.

In an article posted at the 38 North website, Elleman said the video showed the re-entry vehicle shedding small radiant objects at an altitude of 4 to 5 kilometres (2.5 to 3 miles). He said the re-entry vehicle dims and quickly disappears at an altitude of 3 to 4 kilometres (1.9 to 2.5 miles) before it passes behind a mountain range and is obscured from the camera’s view. Had the re-entry vehicle survived, it would have continued to glow until disappearing behind the mountains, Elleman said.

“In short, a reasonable conclusion based on the video evidence is that the Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle did not survive during its second test,” said Elleman, an expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “If this assessment accurately reflects reality, North Korea’s engineers have yet to master re-entry technologies and more work remains before Kim Jong Un has an ICBM capable of striking the American mainland.”

Granted, it’s impossible to know how the warhead would have performed if North Korea had launched the missile for real. Both ICBMs were test-launched at highly lofted angles to reduce the range and avoid neighbouring countries, and the near-vertical flight paths meant the re-entry vehicles endured harsher conditions during their descents.

But Kim Dong-yub, a defence analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul, said it’s obvious North Korea has yet to reach where it wants to be with re-entry technologies.

While North Korea has declared that the Hwasong-14’s latest launch confirmed important features of the missile, such as its range and the warhead’s atmospheric re-entry, it also described the rocket as “landing in the target waters in the open sea.” That probably wasn’t an ideal outcome for North Korean engineers because nuclear warheads are usually designed to detonate at lower altitudes shortly before impact, Kim said.

“Considering the cost and efforts they put into tests, North Korea likely would have tried to detonate the warhead properly; they apparently failed this time, but could focus on this aspect in future tests,” Kim said.

Mastering warhead re-entries would be one of the most critical military milestones the North has left, along with developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile system and solid-fuel ICBMs, Kim said.

Kim Tong-Hyung, The Associated Press

by Canadian Press

Analysts doubt North Korea’s ICBM re-entry capability

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