By Scotia Wealth Management - The Zukiwsky Group

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MARKET WATCH: Nov. 22

Nov 22, 2019 | 8:00 PM

Big Picture

Dow Falters as Phase-One Trade Deal Looking Less Likely

It was a quiet start to the trading week Monday as U.S. stocks drifted between small gains and losses, while the TSX snapped an 11-day winning streak with a slight 3-point decline. On Tuesday, the Dow closed down 102 points over disappointing results from key U.S. retailers, while the TSX shed another 14 points. On Wednesday, global markets declined after China reacted strongly to a U.S. Senate bill aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong, adding yet another stumbling block to reaching a phase-one trade deal. Waning trade hopes dragged the Dow down an additional 113 points Wednesday, while the Nasdaq was off 44, and gold prices rose to their highest in nearly two weeks before paring gains later in the day. It was another down day for North American markets on Thursday as conflicting trade signals continued to weigh on equities. In currency news, the loonie softened to a near-six-week low against the greenback on Wednesday as investor sentiment soured on U.S.-China tensions. However, the loonie recovered some ground Thursday after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz indicated that current monetary conditions were “about right.” On Thursday morning, money markets had estimated a 12% chance of a rate cut at the BoC’s next policy meeting in early December. Finally, in its quarterly report on the global economy released Thursday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 to 2.9%. The agency said investment had weakened due to the U.S.-China trade war, the U.K.’s ongoing Brexit saga and “erosion of the rules-based global trading system.”

Markets

N.A. Markets Weighed Down by Trade Concerns

mayor hopes to meet housing minister this month

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18h ago

Last seen Jan. 15

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23h ago

eyes up

Air Spray training around Red Deer Regional Airport

Apr 02, 2026

For the four days covered in this report, the Dow was down 239 points to close at 27,766, the S&P 500 declined 17 points to settle at 3,103, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 35 points to close at 8,506. In Canada, the TSX lost 29 points to end at 16,999.

Equities/Strategy

Strategy

Global context worsening, increasing risks to the outlook and chances of financial stress in Canada. Bank of Canada (BoC) Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins spoke earlier this week at the International Finance Club of Montréal on issues of financial stability in Canada, given heightened uncertainty. Ms. Wilkins’ comments on the current state of the economy were consistent with the views outlined at the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in October. Inflation is close to target, the unemployment rate is near historic lows, and wage growth has picked up. Ms. Wilkins discussed last month’s decision to hold rates unchanged and reiterated that with inflation close to target, lowering the benchmark rate on an insurance basis was not worth the cost. The Bank will continue to monitor trade developments and household vulnerabilities, as well as fiscal policy developments, as it considers the appropriate path forward for monetary policy. The Canadian dollar weakened modestly on the back of the Senior Deputy Governor’s comments, but rate cut expectations were little changed. We expect the BoC to leave rates unchanged again in December before undertaking at least one rate cut in 2020.

(Bill Curry)

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