Subscribe to the 100% free rdnewsNOW daily newsletter!
sponsored

Market Watch: June 16, 2023

Jun 16, 2023 | 2:18 PM

Big Picture

Corporate earnings influence investors’ decisions

Canadian equity markets climbed on Monday to start a week that included important interest-rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank. By the close, the Dow gained 190 points, the S&P 500 went up by 40 points, and the Nasdaq gained 203 points. In Canada, the TSX finished 29 points higher, with losses in the Energy sector offset by gains in the Information Technology sector. On Tuesday, North American equity markets climbed to extend the previous session’s gains as investors eagerly anticipated the interest-rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) on Wednesday. By the day’s close, the Dow gained 146 points, the S&P 500 gained 30 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 111 points. In Canada, the TSX rose 69 points, led by the Financials sector. On Wednesday, The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target rate at 5%-5.25%, pausing it’s tightening campaign after ten consecutive hikes. The decision allows the Fed to evaluate the economic consequences of previous rate increases, with potential rate hikes resuming in July. The Dow lost 233 points by the close, the S&P 500 went up by 4 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 53 points. The TSX saw a 25-point increase in Canada, led by the Information Technology sector. North American equity markets gained on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting. With inflation running above target, the move marked the eighth consecutive rate increase and came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve Board paused interest-rate increases. ECB President Lagarde hinted another rate increase might come in July. By the close, the Dow increased by 429 points, the S&P 500 by 53 points, and the Nasdaq by 156 points. In Canada, the TSX increased by 12 points.

North American Indexes end the week higher

For the four trading days covered in this report, the Dow increased by 531 points to close at 34,408, the S&P 500 went up 127 points to settle at 4,426, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 524 points to close at 13,783. In Canada, the TSX increased by 135 points to end at 20,027.

Strategy

Fed left interest rates unchanged but signalled more hikes

The Fed has left the target rate unchanged at 5%-5.25%, taking the first pause after ten consecutive rate increases over the last 15 months. This was generally expected after the CPI and PPI headline inflation showed signs of cooling down. Policymakers already began moderating the pace of hikes in December and delivered only quarterpoint increases this year. The decision to pause was unanimous despite many talks about further rate hikes. Looking at the dot plot, the majority of the committee sees at least two more rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, the Fed revised the 2023 GDP growth from 0.4% to 1.0%, lowered the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.1%, and increased core PCE to 3.9% from 3.6%. The June forecasts also showed that two further rate hikes are expected before the end of the year. With higher growth, a stronger labour market, and higher inflation expectations, the question of a pause might arise, and the answer comes from Chair Jerome Powell and many other central bankers. They state that the effect of rate hikes acts with a lag. The Bank of Canada indicates on its website that it usually takes 18 to 24 months to see the full impact. The hawkish speech and dovish action allow the Fed to act on the incoming data. Fed officials will see another inflation and jobs data round before July’s meeting.

Disclaimer

This report is provided to you for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide personal investment advice. This report does not include or constitute an investment recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or specific needs of individual clients. Any statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and talk to your investment advisor. The author(s) of the report and the supervisors of the Global Portfolio Advisory Group may own securities of the companies included herein. Scotia Capital Inc. is what is referred to as an “integrated” investment firm since we provide a broad range of corporate finance, investment banking, institutional trading and retail client services and products. As a result, we recognize that there are inherent conflicts of interest in our business since we often represent both sides to a transaction, namely the buyer and the seller. While we have policies and procedures in place to manage these conflicts, we also disclose certain conflicts to you so that you are aware of them. Please note that we may have, from time to time, relationships with the companies that are discussed in this report. The Global Portfolio Advisory Group prepared this report by analyzing information from various sources. Information obtained in the preparation of this report may have been obtained from the Equity Research and Fixed Income Research departments of the Global Banking and Markets division of Scotiabank. Information may be also obtained from the Foreign Exchange Research and Scotia Economics departments within Scotiabank. In addition to information obtained from members of the Scotiabank group, information may be obtained from the following third-party sources: Standard & Poor’s, Morningstar, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse AG, Perimeter Markets Inc., and FactSet. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. While the information provided is believed to be accurate and reliable, neither Scotia Capital Inc., which includes the Global Portfolio Advisory Group, nor any of its affiliates makes any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Neither Scotia Capital Inc. nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The pro forma and estimated financial information contained in this report, if any, is based on certain assumptions and analysis of information available at the time that this information was prepared, which assumptions and analysis may or may not be correct. There is no representation, warranty or other assurance that any projections contained in this report will be realized. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the Global Portfolio Advisory Group as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. For that reason, it cannot be guaranteed by The Bank of Nova Scotia or any of its subsidiaries, including Scotia Capital Inc. This report is not, and is not to be construed as: (i) an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities and/or commodity futures contracts; (ii) an offer to transact business in any jurisdiction; or (iii) investment advice to any party. Products and services described herein are only available where they can be lawfully provided. Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities and/or commodities and/or commodity futures contracts mentioned herein as principal or agent. Trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Copyright 2023 Scotia Capital Inc. All rights reserved. This report is distributed by Scotia Capital Inc., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Scotia Capital Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. ® Registered trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia, used under licence. Scotia Wealth Management® consists of a range of financial services provided by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank®); The Bank of Nova Scotia Trust Company (Scotiatrust®); Private Investment Counsel, a service of 1832 Asset Management L.P.; 1832 Asset Management U.S. Inc.; Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc.; and ScotiaMcLeod®, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. Private banking and International private banking services are provided in Canada by The Bank of Nova Scotia. Estate and trust services are provided by The Bank of Nova Scotia Trust Company. Portfolio management is provided by 1832 Asset Management L.P. and 1832 Asset Management U.S. Inc. Insurance services are provided by Scotia Wealth Management Insurance Services Inc. Wealth advisory and brokerage services are provided by ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. International investment advisory services are provided in Canada by Scotia Capital Inc. Financial planning services are provided by The Bank of Nova Scotia, 1832 Asset Management L.P., and ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. Scotia Capital Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc. is the insurance subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group of companies. When discussing life insurance products, ScotiaMcLeod advisors are acting as Life Insurance Agents (Financial Security Advisors in Quebec) representing Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc. Scotia Wealth Management consists of a range of financial services provided, in The Bahamas, by Scotiabank (Bahamas) Limited and The Bank of Nova Scotia Trust Company (Bahamas) Limited. International private banking services are provided in The Bahamas by Scotiabank (Bahamas) Limited, an entity registered with The Central Bank of The Bahamas. International investment advisory services are provided in The Bahamas by Scotiabank (Bahamas) Limited, an entity registered with The Securities Commission of The Bahamas. International wealth structuring solutions are provided in The Bahamas by The Bank of Nova Scotia Trust Company (Bahamas) Limited, an entity registered with The Central Bank of The Bahamas. Scotia Wealth Management consists of international investment advisory services provided, in Barbados, by The Bank of Nova Scotia, Barbados Branch, an entity licensed by the Barbados Financial Services Commission. Scotia Wealth Management consists of a range of financial services provided, in the Cayman Islands, by Scotiabank & Trust (Cayman) Ltd. International private banking services, international investment advisory services and international wealth structuring solutions are provided in the Cayman Islands by Scotiabank & Trust (Cayman) Ltd., an entity licensed by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority. Scotia Wealth Management consists of international private banking services provided, in Peru, by Scotiabank Peru S.A.A, an entity supervised by the Peru Superintendence of Banking and Insurance. Scotia Wealth Management® in Chile consists of services provided by Scotiabank Chile (Bank), Scotia Corredora de Bolsa Chile Limitada (Brokerage) and Scotia Administradora General de Fondos Chile S.A. (Asset Management), entities supervised by the Comisión para el Mercado Financiero de Chile (Financial Market Commission). ® Registered trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia, used under license