Anxious Canadian firms bet Trump will buckle before 50% tariff deadline

In the meantime, businesses continue to track whether the president will live up to his perceived proclivity for bluffing or backing down on tariff pledges — among others — which has given rise to the acronym known as TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

“We’re getting a little bit blasé. Trump never follows through — TACO,” said John Corey, who heads the Freight Management Association of Canada.

He pointed to several unfulfilled threats, including the president’s vow late last month “to put a big tariff on Canada because of the smoke,” as haze from Canadian wildfires drifted across the border to blanket swaths of the U.S.

“People are starting to see there’s a lot of bluster, but not much comes of it,” said Corey, who views the White House pronouncements as a negotiating tactic amid a review of CUSMA.

Others aren’t so sure.

“The feedback that we’re getting so far is that it will be implemented,” said Alain Bédard, CEO of TFI International Inc., Canada’s largest trucking firm, on a recent call with analysts.

Despite that uncertainty, he’s seen little evidence of a behavioural shift by shippers.

“We’re not seeing any movement that’s exceptional, like pre-buying or pre-shipping because of the 30-day implementation deadline,” he said on July 27.

“This is not the same as what we’ve seen in Q1 (2025), where everybody was trying to chase volumes into the U.S. prior to tariffs.”

Through much of last year, retailers and exporters across the globe rushed to beat American tariff deadlines that shifted constantly by way of temporary reprieves, pauses and extensions. Now, with Canadian shippers more desensitized to the trade tumult, their preparations have taken different forms, such as assessing the potential financial toll.

Customs brokers are scrambling to help clients review their products and supply chains to determine whether the goods fall under the threatened tariff regime, said Harker.

“Many importers were just getting their heads around whether or not their goods were compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement,” she said. Some took steps to obtain certification under the trade pact. For a raft of products, that compliance could be meaningless by next week.

For some, numbness to White House whims may have morphed into resignation.

Dave Pentland, vice-president of Carson International, a licensed customs broker based in Vancouver, has been churning out reports for clients on the short-term cost of the “worst-case scenario.”

About one-fifth of them are hurrying to push cargo across the border before Wednesday, he said, but the rest are hoping — or praying — the deadline is merely a bargaining tool.

Front-loading may seem pointless if a 50 per cent tariff renders their exports to America financially unsustainable, effectively wiping out that portion of their business overnight, Pentland said.

“They’d all just stop,” he said, pointing to clients in the garment and paper product industries in particular. “It’s going to hurt Canada if it goes through.”

Some two-thirds of the country’s roughly $3 billion in annual apparel and textile exports land in the U.S., according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

“There’s a real niche in Canada for people that import foreign fabric and then they’re able to make the goods qualify under CUSMA,” Pentland said. “That’s a lot of small- and medium-sized companies.”

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Janice Charette, Canada’s chief trade negotiator, have been in Washington since Monday for talks and a pair of meetings with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Greer said Friday that the discussions were “constructive” but that Canada would have to lift its retaliatory measures in order to avoid new tariffs.

The Trump administration says the new duties are a response to provincial bans on U.S. alcohol, Canada’s supply-managed dairy system and quotas on certain U.S. vehicles.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 14, 2026.

— With files from Kelly Geraldine Malone in Des Moines, Iowa

Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press

by The Canadian Press

Anxious Canadian firms bet Trump will buckle before 50% tariff deadline

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