By Josh Hall (Twitter: @Vancan19)

MONDAY UPDATE

Red Deer struggles with new COVID cases as provincial ‘R value’ dips

Oct 4, 2021 | 4:36 PM

Today’s update bears some moderately good news as provincial R values have declined past a significant threshold.

An R value above 1.0 means transmission rate is increasing, while a value of 1.0 means an infected person will infect one other person. Below 1.0 means transmission rate is decreasing.

For the period of Sept. 27 to Oct. 3, Alberta’s average R value was 0.92. In Edmonton Zone, the rate was 0.86, Calgary Zone was 0.93, and the rest of Alberta was 0.94.

For the period of Sept. 13-19, Alberta’s value was 1.04, Edmonton was at 0.97, Calgary at 0.94, and the rest of Alberta at 1.15.

For the period of Aug. 16-22, Alberta’s value was 1.19, Edmonton was 1.32, Calgary was 1.05, and the rest of the province was at 1.22.

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R value numbers are updated by Alberta Health every two weeks.

PROVINCIAL NUMBERS

Provincially, new case numbers remain high.

Over the past three days, Alberta Health confirmed a combined 4,037 new cases, with 1,629 on Friday, 1,282 on Saturday, and 1,126 on Sunday.

Last Monday, the province announced 5,181 weekend cases, and 4,633 the Monday before that.

There are now 20,674 active cases, up 459 from Friday. That’s also down from last Monday’s total of 21,307.

By age (seven-day change)

Under 1: 132 (-9)
1-4: 978 (+72)
5-9: 2154 (+85)
10-19: 3243 (-127)
20-29: 2528 (-330)
30-39: 3833 (-254)
40-49: 3181 (-9)
50-59: 1904 (-23)
60-69: 1361 (-66)
70-79: 733 (-1)
80+: 625 (+32)

An average of 13,088 tests were conducted each day over the past three days. The seven-day positivity rate is currently 10.74 per cent, up from 10.65 per cent last Monday.

Provincially, 1,079 patients are currently hospitalized with COVID, up 13 over the weekend, including 257 who have been admitted to intensive care, down six.

Of the 822 people hospitalized but not in ICU, 537 are completely unvaccinated, 68 have received one dose, and 217 have two doses.

Of the 257 in ICU, 219 are completely unvaccinated, 11 have one dose, and 27 have two doses.

Since Friday’s update, there has sadly been 21 new deaths added to the provincial COVID-19 death toll, which stands at 2,752. That’s up from 2,645 a week ago, or an average of 14 per day for the last week. Two weeks ago, the total was 2,545.

CENTRAL ZONE

While R values dip across the province, Red Deer and the Central Zone are struggling to see consistent declines.

Over the weekend, the city added 262 cases, 141 recoveries and one fatality.

That gives Red Deer 904 active cases, up (net) 120 from Friday.

Last Monday, Red Deer hit a new record of 915, breaking its previous record of 911 set at the height of the third wave.

Red Deer has now recorded 8,274 total cases, 7,305 recoveries and 65 deaths.

Red Deer’s active case rate is currently 849.7 per 100,000 people, compared to 250.9 for City of Calgary and 277.3 for City of Edmonton.

Central Zone hit a new pandemic record high for one-day positivity rate over the weekend. With 1,527 tests conducted on Sunday, Oct. 3, the positivity rate was 25.61 per cent. To contrast, the highest rates of the weekend for other zones were 7.49 (Oct. 1-Calgary), 7.74 (Oct. 1-Edmonton), 19.09 (Oct. 1-North), and 16.41 (Oct. 3-South).

The entire Central Zone has 4,379 active cases as of Monday, up 384 from Friday. There are 207 hospitalizations, up 21, and 20 people are receiving intensive care at Red Deer Regional Hospital, up two from Friday.

AHS tells rdnewsNOW that patient diversion continues, with one patient transferred directly to Calgary Zone as opposed to Red Deer Regional in the last 24 hours. There is still no decision on if any medical personnel from Newfoundland, the Canadian Forces or Canadian Red Cross will be deployed to Red Deer, which has 26 total ICU beds.

The zone has had 275 deaths linked to the virus, with two reported over the weekend.

Active cases across Central Zone (three-day change)

Red Deer County: 341 (-14)

Sylvan Lake: 128 (-1)

Lacombe County: 308 (+53)

Lacombe: 239 (+45)

Ponoka County: 370 (+27)

Brazeau County: 267 (+13)

Clearwater County: 359 (+2)

Mountain View County: 152 (-2)

Olds: 80 (-5)

Kneehill County: 157 (+10)

County of Stettler: 160 (+5)

VACCINATIONS

In Alberta, 6,121,821 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have now been administered as of the end of Oct. 3. That’s up 36,591 over the weekend, and 108,544 over the last week.

Of the 12+ population, 84.2 per cent has received at least one dose (71.6% total population), while 74.9 per cent of the 12+ population is now fully vaccinated (63.7% total population).

In Red Deer, 69,872 (76.2% eligible/65.7% total) people have received at least one dose, up 437 over the last three days, compared to an increase of 652 last weekend, and 1,219 the weekend prior.

Meanwhile, 61,566 residents (67.2%/57.9%) are fully vaccinated, up 338, compared to an increase of 458 last weekend, and 586 the weekend before that.