By Scotia Wealth Management - The Zukiwsky Group

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MARKET WATCH: Jan. 10

Jan 10, 2020 | 12:04 PM

Big Picture

Markets Climb as Mideast Tensions Subside

It’s been an unsettling week for investors across the globe as tensions between the U.S. and Iran flared after last Friday’s killing of a top Iranian military commander. On Monday, gold prices climbed to near seven-year highs as investors headed for safe-haven assets. While global equity markets headed lower, North American shares rebounded after falling more than 0.5% after opening bell. By Monday’s close all three major U.S. indexes were in the green, while the TSX added 39 points, buoyed by rising crude prices.

However, the Dow fell 120 points Tuesday as Iranian officials issued fiery calls for attacks on U.S. targets. Oil prices fell nearly 1%, surrendering some of the gains of recent days as many investors saw a decreased likelihood of immediate supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Although Iran did fire missiles on U.S. bases in Iraq later Tuesday, there were no U.S. casualties and tensions seemed to subside somewhat after both Iranian officials and President Trump suggested the countries were ready to de-escalate the situation. U.S. stocks had a strong showing Wednesday, with the Dow up more than 160 points, while the Nasdaq climbed 61. Two further signs that the tensions had subsided: gold surrendered overnight gains, and the safe-haven yen fell from three-month highs against the greenback.

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With tensions clearly diminished, the three major U.S. indexes continued to rally toward fresh records Thursday as investors headed back into risky assets. Gold prices again sank, while U.S. Treasury yields rose. By Thursday’s close, the Dow was up more than 200 points, and the TSX climbed to a record high, up 67 points.

There was more good news for investors Thursday as China said its top trade negotiator would head to Washington next week to sign a phase-one accord, the first official confirmation by China that the elusive trade deal would become reality.

Markets

N.A. Markets Head Toward Fresh Records

For the four days covered in this report, the Dow surged 322 points to close at 28,957, the S&P 500 added 40 points to settle at 3,275, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 182 points to close at 9,203. In Canada, the TSX gained 170 points to end at 17,236.

Equities/Strategy

Strategy

Patience and discipline are paramount in periods of heightened volatility and uncertainty – The analysis summarized in the chart below is intended to instill confidence that while globally impactful events tend to lead to a market sell-off, those periods of volatility have generally been short-lived and quickly recouped. In situations like the one the market experienced last week when the U.S. launched an airstrike in Iraq, killing a high-ranking Iranian military official, market reaction will be swift but, more often than not, exaggerated. The S&P 500 Index sold-off in excess of -0.8% on Friday morning when the news broke before rebounding modestly throughout most of the day. Further, the drawdown has been completely retraced this week. In periods of heightened volatility and uncertainty, a principled and disciplined investment philosophy will benefit investors in the long-run.

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