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Market Watch: Feb. 5, 2021

Feb 5, 2021 | 9:47 AM

Big Picture

N.A. Markets Bounce Back With a Vengeance; TSX Hits Record High

U.S. stocks rebounded Monday, with major N.A. indexes regaining ground after their worst week since October. Meanwhile, Reddit retail traders have shifted their focus to the silver market, where they began to drive up prices for the precious metal. In Canada, the TSX gained 335 points in a broad-based rally, while the Dow and S&P added 229 and 60 points, respectively. It was an especially good day for tech, as the Nasdaq surged 333 points.

Despite some volatility in silver futures, major U.S. markets were up sharply again Tuesday, fueled by gains in key tech names and optimism over progress on a U.S. pandemic relief package. The TSX also posted a healthy advance, up 180 points, even as shares in silver stocks retreated somewhat from Monday highs.

Gains were a bit more modest on Wednesday as corporate earnings have been largely better than expected and economic data for the U.S. services sector continues to improve. By Wednesday’s close, the Dow, S&P and TSX all registered mild gains, while the Nasdaq was essentially flat. It was also a good day for the energy sector, as oil prices rose 2% after reserves fell to their lowest levels in 11 months.

According to U.S. jobs data released Thursday, the labour market continues to struggle with nearly 780,000 new jobless claims. Although the numbers remain elevated, U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday, with the S&P extending its winning streak to four sessions and hitting another record close. By Thursday’s finish, the Dow climbed 332 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq added 41 and 167, respectively. In Canada, the TSX also extended its winner streak to four sessions, hitting a record high Thursday, as oil prices continued climbing.

N.A. Markets Post Strong Gains

For the four trading days covered in this report, the Dow surged 1,074 points to close at 31,056, the S&P 500 climbed 158 points to settle at 3,872, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 708 points to close at 13,778. In Canada, the TSX finished strong, adding 705 points to end at 18,042.

Strategy

New lockdown measures and surging case levels lead to Canadian employment dropping to its lowest level since August

Employment in Canada fell by more than expected in the first month of the year as new waves of lockdowns across thecountry weighed on the labour market. Employment fell by 212,800k on the month, far exceeding the 40,000 decline predicted by consensus and adding to the 52,700 jobs lost in December. The unemployment rate jumped to 9.4%, versus 8.8% previously and a forecast of 8.9%. Hours worked increased 0.9% in the month in January. Overall, the losses were confined to part-time positions (-225,400), with full-time jobs increasing (12,600). The decline was highly concentrated in Central Canada, with losses in Ontario and Quebec totaling 251,000. Newfoundland and Labrador also saw job losses while the rest of the provinces either held steady or modestly increased employment. Employment declines in January were concentrated in three service-producing industries which were most affected by new and continuing public health restrictions: accommodation and food services (-8.2%), retail trade (-7.4%), and information, culture and recreation (- 2.4%). In the goods-producing sector, employment in construction rose by 39,000 (+2.8%) in January, driven by gains in Quebec and Alberta. We expect the BoC to look through this month’s weakness, given the shortfall can be fully explained by lockdown effects. Certainly, it is disappointing to see but with some provinces moving toward easing several restrictions and vaccine roll-out coming along, employment should rebound accordingly in the months ahead.

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