By Chris Brown

provincial modelling details

Kenney: Alberta is doing well compared to other jurisdictions, but cautions it’s early

Apr 8, 2020 | 4:29 PM

Premier Jason Kenney announced another 50 cases of COVID-19 in Alberta on Wednesday, putting the provincial total at 1,423. There have also been three new deaths in the province for a total of 29, and 519 of the total cases are considered to be recovered.

Central zone has seen six additional cases, bringing the total to 72. Red Deer now has 32 cases of the virus.

“Last night I spoke to Albertans about probable and elevated scenarios. These scenarios help to inform decision making and preparation activities, especially regarding health system needs,” Kenney said. “Modelling is intended to show expected trends. It is not a day-to-day forecast of case increases, and the scenarios should not be considered concrete predictions. As the situation evolves and new data becomes available the modelling will change. We will continue to refine the data and provide Albertans with updated information.”

Speaking in front of a chart showing confirmed cases per 100,000, Kenney said it shows Alberta is doing “very well” in terms of the slope compared to other jurisdictions.

“Fortunately, we’re much closer to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan than we are for example to the European countries – Spain, Italy, France – or for that matter the United States,” said Kenney, adding the very low slope is what Albertans want to see.

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He had a word of caution though.

“We’re still fairly early into this, and that’s why continued vigilance is necessary,” Kenney said. “Japan has had a low slope but they continue to go up in terms of cases on a per capita basis. So this is encouraging data that we’re doing better than most countries, but it’s nothing that we can take for granted.”

The full modelling projection can be read here

Kenney also showed a variety of charts showing Alberta’s relative success compared to other provinces.

He added hospitalizations and subsequent ICU admissions is the best way to measure the impact of the virus. According a chart Alberta’s hospitalizations is 0.2 per 10,000 cases.

‘We are one-fifth of where Quebec is at, one-half of where Ontario is at and about one-third of where British Columbia is at,” the premier noted.

Kenney presented the basics of the modelling data on Tuesday evening in an address to the province.

The probable scenario shows Alberta will hit the peak of infections in mid-May and that by the end of the summer there could be as many as 800,000 infections and between 400 and 3,100 deaths in the province.

The elevated, but less likely, scenario shows the peak in early May, with as many as one million infections and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.

“I know that these numbers can be overwhelming. But these models are not a done deal,” said Kenney on Tuesday. “I want Albertans to see them as a challenge. Perhaps the greatest challenge of our generation.”

Kenney said the modelling scenarios are not inevitable and that how the COVID-19 pandemic plays out in Alberta is up to Albertans and the choices they make when it comes to following the countermeasures recommended by public health officials.

Those countermeasures – proper hand hygiene, physical distancing, staying home when you can and more – work, said Kenney.

“Our experts project that if we had no social distancing and public health orders in place, we could experience as many as 1.6 million infections, and 32,000 deaths in Alberta – as many as 640 deaths per day. Our health system would collapse under the chaos of that scenario,” he said.