Analysis: Caution likely to guide next steps in Koreas talks

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THE SUMMIT ITSELF

This is a big “get” for both North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

It’s been a tough, costly year for North Korea. All those missile launches — Kim was firing them off at a record pace in 2017 — don’t come cheaply. And Kim’s outspoken defiance of President Donald Trump translated if nothing else into heavier sanctions and heightened isolation.

So improving relations with Seoul would give Kim some much-needed breathing room.

In the bigger picture, Kim wants to chip away at Washington’s sanctions-oriented, “maximum pressure” policy. He will be looking to soften up Moon, and get him to agree to more cultural and economic exchanges that challenge Washington’s efforts to isolate Kim’s regime.

Moon, of course, is no political novice.

He isn’t likely to compromise his country’s most important military and economic relationship, which is with Washington. But playing the peacemaker has the potential for a huge payoff, both for the future of his country and for his own political legacy. Former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung won the Nobel Peace Prize for setting up a summit with Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, in 2000.

Kim Jong Un may well also have a surprising “gift” up his sleeve — a headline-grabbing concession of some sort, possibly something involving the United States, since that is what Moon wants most.

When Kim’s father met Japan’s prime minister in 2002, he agreed to a missile-launch moratorium. He also made the shocking admission that his secret agents had kidnapped more than a dozen Japanese citizens and agreed to allow the survivors to temporarily return home while Pyongyang investigated what happened to the others.

Both agreements ultimately collapsed acrimoniously.

Which brings us to another thing to keep in mind: Overly ambitious, future-leaning agreements with the North have a tendency not to pan out.

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MILITARY MANEUVERS

Right around this time of year, the United States and South Korea conduct the biggest annual military exercises in the world. Pyongyang sees them as a dress rehearsal for war and generally beefs up its readiness or carries out high-profile missile launches in response.

That’s been the pattern for decades.

To defend its ally, the United States has about 25,000 troops stationed in South Korea. North Korea claims it needs nuclear weapons to defend itself against the U.S. threat and has long said it will never relent until its safety is guaranteed, which is usually interpreted to mean the U.S. must withdraw those troops and sign a peace treaty formally ending the 1950-53 Korean War.

On Wednesday, the day after the summit was announced, the North’s state-run media was still touting that line.

“Peace and security on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and the rest of the world have been reliably guaranteed by the DPRK’s bolstering of nuclear deterrent,” the ruling party’s newspaper said in a commentary. “The DPRK has defended the world peace and security by single-handedly frustrating the U.S. reckless nuclear moves to stifle it by force and dominate the world. Its feats deserve the praise of the world.”

DPRK is short for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

South Korea is suggesting Pyongyang may now be willing to negotiate its position, or at least hold off on missile launches and nuclear tests while talks are underway.

The handling of this year’s exercises could impact its next moves. Seoul and Washington agreed to postpone the exercises until after the Pyeongchang Olympics and Paralympics, which begin this week. Pyongyang is already pushing Seoul to either scale them back or call them off indefinitely, a move some in Washington believe would be a dangerous sign of appeasement.

Are they on the negotiating table?

Adm. Scott Swift, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, told reporters on Tuesday in Tokyo that he couldn’t comment on when the exercises will begin. But he added, “The United States has been clear that we respect the sovereignty and the sovereign decisions that the Republic of Korea may make in its own best interest.”

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TIME FOR SOME MOONSHINE?

While Washington will loom in the offing, the summit between Kim and Moon is intended to be a Korea summit. So, officially at least, the focus will be on Korea issues.

One thing both sides could easily agree on is more reunions for families divided by the Korean War. The reunions are emotionally charged and not terribly political, so that would be low-hanging fruit.

The bigger theme will be on how to follow up after the two leaders go back home.

Kim’s father used his summits to encourage a “sunshine policy” of increased, long-term investment and trade with the South. Whether Moon is interested in moving toward a similar “Moonshine” policy has yet to be seen.

Moon has expressed an interest in reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex, an experiment blending South Korean management and capital with North Korean labour that opened just north of the Demilitarized Zone in 2004. At its height, the complex employed tens of thousands of North Koreans. It has been shuttered since 2016.

If the summit goes well, Kim may pull another page out of his father’s playbook and try to involve South Korea in his efforts to develop the port city of Wonsan and the nearby Mount Kumgang tourist area. South Korea was a big investor in the same area back in the late 1990s and tourism actually flourished for about a decade.

But that effort didn’t end well, either.

In 2008, a North Korean soldier shot and killed a South Korean housewife who wandered into a restricted area while visiting there.

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Eric Talmadge is the AP’s Pyongyang bureau chief. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram: @EricTalmadge

Eric Talmadge, The Associated Press

by Canadian Press

Analysis: Caution likely to guide next steps in Koreas talks

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