(rdnewsNOW/Josh Hall)

By Josh Hall (Twitter: @Vancan19)

population growth

Red Deer takes back title of Alberta’s third-largest city: 2021 Census

Feb 11, 2022 | 8:30 AM

Red Deer can say once again it is Alberta’s third-largest city, according to Statistics Canada’s 2021 Federal Census.

The latest figures, released this week, show Red Deer with a population of 100,844, up from 100,418 in the 2016 Federal Census. That’s a 0.42 per cent increase.

Lethbridge is up to 98,406 from 92,279, an increase of 6.64 per cent.

In 2019, a municipal census in Lethbridge showed that city with 101,482, while Red Deer’s municipal census that year counted 100,002.

Red Deer Mayor Ken Johnston says there is pride taken in being the province’s third-largest city.

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“The term ‘bragging rights’ comes to mind. But pragmatically speaking, it means we maintained population despite the downturn in energy. We’re happy about that because upheaval in Alberta’s oil sector really hits Red Deer almost more than any other place. Once the uptick comes, we’ll respond in kind, so there is optimism,” Johnston says.

“It’ also means we’re not going to lose any grant money. We’re happy there. We have a very prominent role between the two larger cities, so just watch us go over the next five years.”

Johnston also noted the prospects of carbon capture and high-speed rail as factors that could help boost population and prosperity for the region.

City of Red Deer Major Projects Planner, David Girardin, says even though previous projections had the municipality surpassing 107,000 by 2021, the latest figures aren’t surprising, nor concerning.

“When we do those projections, we do them to make sure we are not growing too fast or slow,” he explains. “We don’t want to build a bunch of stuff or develop more areas and not have the growth, but we also don’t want to run out of land because we’re growing faster than expected.”

Based on a number of factors, and using a medium growth forecast of 1.8 per cent annually with the latest figures from StatsCan, Red Deer should have a population of 110,026 by 2026, five years after the most recent census.

2031: 120,066
2036: 131,011
2041: 142,953

Girardin says now that new numbers are available, more analysis will take place. The City of Red Deer is not planning a 2022 municipal census.

Meantime, Calgary’s population increased 5.5 per cent between 2016 and 2021, from 1,239,220 people to 1,306,784.

Edmonton finally hit the 1,000,000 mark, jumping 8.3 per cent from 933,088 citizens to 1,010,899.

As for other mid-sized cities, Fort McMurray comes in fifth overall across the province at 68,002 people, up 1.3 per cent from 67,123.

Grande Prairie overtakes Medicine Hat with 64,141 people, up 1.5 per cent from 63,166.

Medicine Hat added just 11 people between counts, going from 63,260 to 63,271.

Of the five mid-sized cities, Red Deer has the second lowest area at 104.34 square kilometres, meaning it has the second highest population density, at 966.5 people per square kilometre.

Blackfalds, one of the fastest growing communities in Canada over the last several years, did see 12.2 per cent population growth, but fell out of the top 25. Cochrane (11th) and Airdrie (25th) are the two fastest-growing Alberta municipalities at 24.5 per cent and 20.3 per cent, respectively.

Elsewhere in central Alberta

Blackfalds: 10,470 (+12.2%)

Sylvan Lake: 15,995 (+8.0%)

Lacombe: 13,396 (+2.6%)

Lacombe County: 10,283 (-0.6%)

Innisfail: 7,985 (+1.8%)

Red Deer County: 19,993 (+2.1%)

Ponoka: 7,331 (+1.4%)

Ponoka County: 9,998 (+2.0%)

Rocky Mountain House: 6.765 (+2.0%)

Stettler: 5,695 (-4.3%)

Alberta went up 4.8 per cent over five years to 4,262,635 people.

Canada’s new population is 36,991,981, up 5.2 per cent.

More 2021 Census data is anticipated for release on April 27, 2022. The latest is at statcan.gc.ca.

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