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By rdnewsNOW staff

What's to come

Alberta’s exports could be a mixed bag in 2025 with potential U.S. tariffs on the horizon

Jan 7, 2025 | 11:08 AM

New data presented by ATB Financial highlights the importance of exports from Alberta to the U.S. but also a grim reminder of what could be ahead for exporters in the province when president-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

According to the data, of the $166 billion of goods sold internationally over the first 11 months of 2024, $147 billion was sold to our neighbours south of the border.

However, year-to-date sales were 3.4 per cent higher than the same time in 2023 with a rise in energy exports and a drop in crop sales.

With potential U.S. tariffs on the way, there’s a concern if implemented it could cut into the value of Alberta’s sales in 2025.

According to a media release from ATB, they forecast a 10 per cent tariff but if a 25 per cent tariff is set, Alberta’s exports could take a 0.3 per cent hit in 2024.

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Energy products account for more than three quarters of the province’s international exports and ATB expects prices to be a key wildcard.

Their December forecast assumes that oil prices soften next year and natural gas prices improve.

“The downside risk is that oil prices experience a sustained slump, due, for example, to OPEC+ deciding to increase production more than expected,” as stated in the release.

“Prices could also go the other way and push Alberta’s nominal gains from exports significantly higher. The likely cause in this case is a disruption in energy supply brought on by geopolitical conflict.”

ATB’s base case forecast sees Alberta export volumes rising by over 3 per cent in 2025.