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Market Watch- Nov. 23, 2018

Nov 23, 2018 | 2:00 PM

 

U.S. Markets Surrender 2018 Gains; Oil Prices Remain Volatile

It was a rough start to the week for North American equity markets (and global markets generally) as worries over economic growth prompted investors to retreat to safe-haven currencies and U.S. Treasuries. The Dow fell nearly 400 points on Monday and an additional 550 on Tuesday, as lacklustre guidance from the tech and consumer discretionary sectors weighed on markets, essentially wiping out gains for 2018. Continuing uncertainty over Brexit and open hostility between the U.S. and China at the recent APEC Summit in Papua New Guinea did little to calm investor fears over faltering global growth. Adding to the instability were oil prices, which slid as much as 7% Tuesday over fears about slowing global demand and surging U.S. production. Falling crude prices dragged down the TSX, which surrendered 274 points over Monday and Tuesday but recovered ground Wednesday as oil prices rebounded. Meanwhile, on the U.S. economic front, declining consumer sentiment and an increase in initial jobless claims on Wednesday added to signs of potential trouble for the fast-growing economy. Another sign of possible concern: pre-existing home sales posted their largest annual decline since 2014 in October, as the housing market continues to be adversely affected by higher mortgage rates, which are making home ownership less affordable for many. Finally, durable-goods orders decreased 4.4% from the prior month in October – the biggest monthly decline in new orders since July 2017, and much steeper than the 2.6% drop analysts had predicted. Despite the selloff in stocks and corporate bonds that accelerated Tuesday, the Fed has signaled that another rate hike of 25 basis points is likely when it meets again in December

(Big Picture – By Bill Curry)

 

Markets

Markets Continue to Show Signs of Volatility

It was a shortened trading week in the U.S. as markets there were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. For the four days covered in this report, the Dow dropped 948 points to close at 24,465, the S&P 500 shed 86 points to settle at 2,650, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq surrendered 276 points to close at 6,972. In Canada, the TSX was down 64 points to end at 15,092.

 

Equities/Strategy

Strategy

We continue to recommend modest overweight exposure to equities and underweight exposure to fixed income, relative to our long-term strategic asset allocation model. Despite recent financial market volatility, we maintain our constructive outlook given the currently low risk of a U.S. recession and healthy corporate earnings growth. That said, our expectation is for more frequent bouts of financial market volatility in the near and medium-term owing to the maturity of the current business cycle and a long list of risks including a split U.S. Congress, monetary policy tightening by the world’s major central banks, European politics and global trade tensions. We continue to recommend managing these risks through diversification across asset classes and geographies. Further, we recommend exposure to alternative assets, which typically exhibit low correlation to traditional asset classes (such as bonds and equities) and can help investors reduce portfolio volatility and enhance potential risk-adjusted returns. We maintain our bias toward thematic investments in issuers with sustainable competitive advantages, high free cash flow and low leverage.

 

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