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Market Watch – August 24, 2018

Aug 24, 2018 | 11:14 AM

Historic U.S. Bull Market Continues, Venezuela Descending Into Chaos

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks marked their longest bull market in history. It’s been 3,454 days since the S&P 500 hit its low of 666 back in early March 2009. The index has since quadrupled, and on Tuesday briefly set an intraday high. The big question on investors’ minds is whether or not it can keep going. While there’s no shortage of concerns – inflation, interest rates, trade wars and signs of trouble in emerging markets – it’s difficult to gauge the economic future in what seem like unprecedented times in the U.S.

China’s Vice Minister of Commerce on Wednesday began two days of trade talks with U.S. officials in order to halt an escalation to their ongoing trade war. Unfortunately, expectations for a resolution are currently low. A widened conflict with the U.S. could derail China’s plans to become a global superpower. While President Trump would love to have a deal ahead of November’s midterm elections, that’s been thrown into question given recent developments in legal proceedings centered around Trump associates Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort.

As if his plate isn’t full enough, Trump has voiced his displeasure that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is raising interest rates. Some analysts have questioned whether Trump is planning to give Powell his walking papers. The Federal Reserve Act says Fed governors can be removed by the president “for cause,” but the legal issues around such a decision would be decidedly complex.

In Venezuela, economic signs are growing more dire each day. Under President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk more than 50%, and inflation is projected to reach 1 million percent. Maduro’s latest measures are almost guaranteed to exacerbate the crisis: a 6,000% increase in the minimum wage, and an almost 100% devaluation in the exchange rate.

Markets

Stocks End Lower Thursday as Trade Concerns Linger

For the four days covered in this report, the Dow surrendered 12 points to close at 25,657, the S&P 500 added 7 points to end at 2,857 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 63 points to settle at 7,879. In Canada, the TSX was relatively flat, adding 3 points over the period to close at 16,327.

Equities/Strategy

Investment Strategy

We continue to recommend overweight exposure to equities and underweight exposure to fixed income, relative to our long-term strategic asset allocation model. Recent volatility in global financial markets underscores the importance of portfolio diversification. Geopolitical risk weighed on market sentiment in recent weeks. The Turkish lira crisis spread to other parts of the world, pressuring the euro and emerging market (EM) currencies such as the South African rand, Argentine peso and Brazilian real. Although other EM countries’ trade exposure to Turkey is relatively small, U.S. dollar (USD) strength has been a major concern. Many EM countries rely on foreign capital and have accumulated high levels of USD-denominated debt and expanded their current account deficits in recent years. Credit risks are also mounting, evidenced by widening EM corporate bond spreads. The recent spike in financial market volatility serves as a reminder that investors should manage risk by diversifying their portfolios across traditional asset classes, such as equities and fixed income, and alternative investments.

(Big Picture – By Bill Curry)

 

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